The European Union in the Mediterranean: Discarded Norms and Retreating Power?

The dramatic events that started unfolding in the Mediterranean region since 2011 revealed how volatile it remains in spite of 40 years of European structural foreign policy. Though it is much too early to fully grasp the mid- and long-term consequences of the Arab Spring, it is almost certain that this chain of events will have a deep impact on the sociopolitical reconfigurations of North African and Middle Eastern countries and on regional power equations, thus creating the need for external actors to adapt. This is all the more true for the European Union because of geographic proximity, migration realities, and economic, political, and social challenges as well as the close relationships that emerged out of Euro-Mediterranean policies. In line with the concept of normative power, this paper attempts to identify some of the factors that might substantially contribute to the future reconfiguration of Euro-Mediterranean relations. After surveying the various dimensions of European foreign policy since the 1970s, the paper focuses on post–Arab Spring reorientations, trying to substantiate the claim that being limited by both an institutional and a conceptual path dependency that perpetuates the contradictions of the EU’s normative power posture, these reorientations seem to portend a weakening of the Union’s performative potential and a reduction in its standing in the future balance of power in the Mediterranean.